[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7255 ]

2026-05-24T14:24:58Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 88% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

JUST IN: President Trump says the Strait of Hormuz blockade will remain in full force until an agreement with Iran is signed.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.4750
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8800
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE154.0h

Jury split

L NO · 85%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7255 ]