[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7245 ]

2026-05-24T14:03:27Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Sec. Rubio: Iran will never possess a nuclear weapon, certainly not as long as Donald Trump is President of the United States.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.6550
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE154.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7245 ]