[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7214 ]

2026-05-24T12:53:36Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 57% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

India, US discuss Middle East, trade as Rubio cites progress on Iran conflict http:// reut.rs/4tXxPD1

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.6650
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5687
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE155.5h

Jury split

L NO · 58%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7214 ]