[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7193 ]

2026-05-24T10:42:10Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 52% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The impact on those who insure against political violence has been most dramatic. Insuring some assets now costs 40 times the pre-war rate

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0165
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5233
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE181.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 87% · n=15

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7193 ]