The impact on those who insure against political violence has been most dramatic. Insuring some assets now costs 40 times the pre-war rate
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.1375 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.7483 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 157.5h |
L |
NO · 70% |
Q |
NO · 75% |
S |
NO · 87% · n=15 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7192 ]