[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7139 ]

2026-05-23T20:43:04Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump says negotiators are getting closer to Iran deal, media interviews show http:// reut.rs/4uuhN4k

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2725
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7850
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE171.5h

Jury split

L YES · 72%
Q YES · 75%
S YES · 100% · n=1

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7139 ]