[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7104 ]

2026-05-23T15:29:47Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iran hosts Pakistani delegation amid diplomatic flurry to avert new US strikes

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0065
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7250
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE176.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7104 ]