[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7069 ]

2026-05-23T09:48:51Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 50% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Marine insurers may do well from the war. But the longer it lasts, the more uncertain their prospects become. To discover why, register to r

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0470
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE206.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=15

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7069 ]