[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7018 ]

2026-05-22T22:29:09Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 49% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israeli blockade traps would-be Hajj pilgrim in Gaza

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0560
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4900
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE217.5h

Jury split

L NO · 58%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7018 ]