[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-7002 ]

2026-05-22T21:30:04Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 42% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The turbulent 15 months of Trump’s unlikely US intelligence director

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0355
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4250
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE194.5h

Jury split

L NEUTRAL · 0%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-7002 ]