[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6996 ]

2026-05-22T20:36:50Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 55% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

NEW: Trump convened a meeting with his senior national security team on the war with Iran this morning. He is seriously considering launchi

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Market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0365
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5500
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE219.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6996 ]