[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6983 ]

2026-05-22T19:52:09Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The push to build on a fragile ceasefire agreed in April comes amid fears that if no deal is reached, Donald Trump could resume strikes on I

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Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE28.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=14

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6983 ]