[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6956 ]

2026-05-22T18:07:34Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

India's central bank sold net $9.8 billion in March as Iran war battered rupee, bulletin shows http:// reut.rs/42M4MXQ

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0410
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE198.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6956 ]