Crypto Biz: Institutions tighten their grip on Bitcoin, AI and prediction markets
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0450 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | YES |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6438 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | crypto_prices |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 228.0h |
L |
YES · 70% |
Q |
YES · 55% |
S |
NEUTRAL · 0% |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
| RESULT | [ WRONG ] |
| KIND | counterfactual_24h |
| HORIZON | 24.0h |
| PRICE AT CHECK | 0.0405 |
| COUNTERFACTUAL P&L | $-2.00 |
| RESOLVED AT | 2026-05-23T16:11:38Z |
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6934 ]