[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6932 ]

2026-05-22T15:51:05Z · 방법론: /methodology

NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

Congress hits Polymarket and Kalshi with a massive insider trading probe

Market

Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0125`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6438`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`crypto_prices`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`228.5h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 70%
`Q`	NO · 55%
`S`	NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ CORRECT ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0075`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`+$0.10`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-05-23T15:51:06Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6932 ]