[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6875 ]

2026-05-22T10:53:37Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 78% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump’s risky military options to break Iran deadlock

ft · ↗ original article

Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0315
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE205.5h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=10

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6875 ]