[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6868 ]

2026-05-22T10:40:11Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Donald Trump’s threats, personal envoys and hollowed‑out US embassies are reshaping U.S. diplomacy. Allies often ignore the president’s rhet

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0315
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE205.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6868 ]