Trump's threat to destroy Iran stirred wider nuclear fears. One European diplomat said Russia could use the moment to justify similar threat
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0255 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.7250 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 209.0h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 75% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=26 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6836 ]