[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6814 ]

2026-05-22T03:08:15Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 50% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US to send 5,000 more troops to Poland, Trump says

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0465
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5000
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE213.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 100% · n=11

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6814 ]