[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6804 ]

2026-05-22T00:18:01Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 73% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iran war live: Signs of progress amid efforts to reach US-Iran peace deal

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3350
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7300
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE216.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 60%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6804 ]