[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6782 ]

2026-05-21T18:06:49Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 80% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

JUST IN: Oil prices projected to crash below $90 this month on reports that U.S. & Iran are nearing an agreement. 61% chance.

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8050
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE250.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=27

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6782 ]