[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6744 ]

2026-05-21T14:18:29Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 77% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Today on NY POSTcast: Trump says Netanyahu will do ‘whatever I want him to do’ following ‘dramatic’ call about Iran strikes. Subscribe here:

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Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0385
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7660
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE226.0h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NO · 100% · n=27

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6744 ]