[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6741 ]

2026-05-21T14:17:49Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Today on NY POSTcast: Trump says Netanyahu will do ‘whatever I want him to do’ following ‘dramatic’ call about Iran strikes. Subscribe here:

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0445
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7250
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE226.0h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=27

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6741 ]