[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6717 ]

2026-05-21T10:43:20Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 47% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israel appears to be building a new wall inside Gaza, satellite images appear to show. What You Need to Know is now streaming on @DisneyPlu

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0390
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4667
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE229.6h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 83% · n=12

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6717 ]