Announcing a truce or ceasefire in the Middle East or Ukraine has become less about starting the hard work toward peace and more about domin
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0505 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.6650 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | international |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 231.1h |
L |
NO · 60% |
Q |
NO · 55% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=12 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6686 ]