[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6653 ]

2026-05-21T04:29:02Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 48% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The new art of war is just as bloody as the old

ft · ↗ original article

Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0360
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4765
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE235.6h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NO · 88% · n=17

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6653 ]