[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6641 ]

2026-05-21T03:04:07Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Senate panel hears testimony on online sports betting, prediction markets

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Trump kiss by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.9990
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE237.1h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6641 ]