[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6636 ]

2026-05-21T00:13:38Z · 方法论: /methodology

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]
NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iran war live: Tehran says no surrender to US, diplomacy ‘wiser’ than war

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0510
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7250
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE240.1h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NO · 100% · n=27

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6636 ]