[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6613 ]

2026-05-20T22:24:41Z · 方法论: /methodology

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]
NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The Democratic primary for Michigan’s open Senate seat is shaping up to be one of the most hotly contested races in America. It is also a te

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2850
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE242.1h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← 更早 ] [ 返回列表 ] [ 更新 → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6613 ]