[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6594 ]

2026-05-20T21:08:43Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israeli settlers burn vehicles, install caravans in occupied West Bank

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0585
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE27.1h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6594 ]