[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6587 ]

2026-05-20T20:09:18Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 38% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Young Americans demand court halt Trump’s biggest rollbacks of pollution protections

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0560
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.3750
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE28.1h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6587 ]