[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6583 ]

2026-05-20T18:53:57Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 69% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The US military boarded the Iranian-flagged commercial oil tanker M/T Celestial Sea in the Gulf of Oman after suspecting it violated a US bl

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0695
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6937
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE29.6h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 85%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6583 ]