[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6579 ]

2026-05-20T18:52:59Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

The US military boarded the Iranian-flagged commercial oil tanker M/T Celestial Sea in the Gulf of Oman after suspecting it violated a US bl

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 24?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2050
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE77.6h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6579 ]