[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6575 ]

2026-05-20T18:24:21Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Israeli security minister stirs diplomatic outrage with flotilla activist abuse video

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 22, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0755
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6562
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE30.1h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6575 ]