[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6508 ]

2026-05-20T12:53:01Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

British inflation slowed to 2.8% in April, its lowest since March 2025, but global costs from the Iran war are expected to impact households

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Market

Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0105
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE251.6h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6508 ]