[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6479 ]

2026-05-20T10:39:45Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

US and Israel planned to install Ahmadinejad as Iranian leader, NYT says

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0445
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE277.5h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=15

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6479 ]