[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6433 ]

2026-05-20T08:46:02Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Australia's LNG industry sees an opportunity for growth amid the Iran war - but will the government bend to its policy wish list? ROI's Clyd

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0185
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE39.6h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6433 ]