[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6430 ]

2026-05-20T08:25:52Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 58% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

China added Nvidia’s gaming chip to banned list during Jensen Huang’s visit

ft · ↗ original article

Market

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0060
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.5813
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE256.1h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6430 ]