[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6406 ]

2026-05-20T06:09:09Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

AI engineer says Google unfairly sacked him after he protested against work for Israel

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0080
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7150
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE258.1h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=17

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6406 ]