[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6348 ]

2026-05-19T20:47:07Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

NATO not drawing up plans for Hormuz mission, top commander says http:// reut.rs/4dAj1Uq

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0175
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6438
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE267.6h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ WRONG ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.0305
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L$-0.26
RESOLVED AT2026-05-20T20:47:07Z

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6348 ]