[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6346 ]

2026-05-19T20:23:49Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Iranian journalist describes London stabbing by 'men working for Iran'

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.2850
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6650
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE268.1h

Jury split

L NO · 60%
Q NO · 55%
S NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6346 ]