Middle East crisis live: JD Vance says US remains ‘locked and loaded’ to restart military campaign as Iran warns of ‘new fronts’
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?
| YES PRICE AT VERDICT | 0.0145 |
| VERDICT DIRECTION | NO |
| VERDICT CONFIDENCE | 0.8050 |
| VERDICT TYPE | unanimous |
| CATEGORY | trump_direct |
| HOURS TO CLOSE | 269.1h |
L |
NO · 70% |
Q |
NO · 85% |
S |
NO · 100% · n=10 |
Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.
[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]
—
[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6335 ]