[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6332 ]

2026-05-19T18:57:58Z · 방법론: /methodology

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NO · 80% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Middle East crisis live: JD Vance says US remains ‘locked and loaded’ to restart military campaign as Iran warns of ‘new fronts’

guardian · ↗ original article

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0425
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.8050
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE269.1h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 85%
S NO · 100% · n=28

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6332 ]