[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6327 ]

2026-05-19T18:56:46Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 64% UNANIMOUS [ WRONG ]

News trigger

Minnesota becomes first state to ban prediction markets

npr · ↗ original article

Market

Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0025
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6438
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYcrypto_prices
HOURS TO CLOSE297.6h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 55%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ WRONG ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.0025
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L$0.00
RESOLVED AT2026-05-20T18:56:47Z

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6327 ]