[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6305 ]

2026-05-19T17:35:45Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 77% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

U.K. Foreign Secretary warns that the world is on the brink of a “global food crisis” amid the continued disruption of the Strait of Hormuz

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1500
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7660
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE30.6h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 72%
S NO · 100% · n=17

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6305 ]