[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6302 ]

2026-05-19T17:32:03Z · Methodology: /methodology

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]
NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

What's happening to UK petrol and diesel prices?

bbc · ↗ original article

Market

Iran closes its airspace by May 21?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.1450
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.6625
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE30.6h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 60%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT [ CORRECT ]
KINDcounterfactual_24h
HORIZON24.0h
PRICE AT CHECK0.0550
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L+$2.11
RESOLVED AT2026-05-20T17:32:04Z

User votes

—

[ ← OLDER ] [ BACK TO LIST ] [ NEWER → ]

[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6302 ]