[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6298 ]

2026-05-19T17:02:15Z · Methodology: /methodology

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NO · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Trump says Xi assured him China would not send weapons to Iran

aljazeera · ↗ original article

Market

Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.0225
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7188
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYtrump_direct
HOURS TO CLOSE271.1h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NO · 75%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6298 ]