[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6263 ]

2026-05-19T12:23:21Z · 方法论: /methodology

NO · 66% UNANIMOUS [ CORRECT ]

News trigger

CNN aired footage from Iran showing the Islamic regime instructing children on how to use AK-47 rifles.

Market

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT	`0.0510`
VERDICT DIRECTION	`NO`
VERDICT CONFIDENCE	`0.6650`
VERDICT TYPE	`unanimous`
CATEGORY	`international`
HOURS TO CLOSE	`276.1h`

Jury split

`L`	NO · 60%
`Q`	NO · 55%
`S`	NO · 100% · n=26

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

RESULT	[ CORRECT ]
KIND	`counterfactual_24h`
HORIZON	`24.0h`
PRICE AT CHECK	`0.0375`
COUNTERFACTUAL P&L	`+$0.28`
RESOLVED AT	`2026-05-20T12:23:22Z`

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6263 ]