[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6244 ]

2026-05-19T11:15:21Z · 方法论: /methodology

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NO · 44% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Wallet cluster earned $2.4M with 98% win rate on Polymarket military bets: Bubblemaps

cointelegraph · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3150
VERDICT DIRECTIONNO
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.4375
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE277.1h

Jury split

L NO · 70%
Q NEUTRAL · 0%
S NEUTRAL · 0%

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6244 ]