[ VERDICT // alpha1-sig-6229 ]

2026-05-19T09:58:10Z · Methodology: /methodology

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YES · 72% UNANIMOUS [ PEND · 24H ]

News trigger

Dollar edges up as investors weigh Iran peace hopes against Fed rate outlook http:// reut.rs/4tNOoRN

x_list · ↗ original article

Market

US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?

YES PRICE AT VERDICT0.3250
VERDICT DIRECTIONYES
VERDICT CONFIDENCE0.7150
VERDICT TYPEunanimous
CATEGORYinternational
HOURS TO CLOSE278.3h

Jury split

L YES · 70%
Q YES · 55%
S YES · 100% · n=1

Each row is one independent juror. L and Q are the language-model jurors; S is the non-LLM statistical baseline. The aggregated direction above is the majority verdict.

Outcome

[ PENDING — counterfactual validation runs at verdict.ts + 24h ]

User votes

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[ buchiang@v1 // alpha1-sig-6229 ]